Chagos Islands APPG 39th meeting November 2013

The Chagos Islands (BIOT) All-Party Parliamentary Group held its 39th meeting on 20 November 2013

The Group considered the ministerial statement of 19 November to Parliament concerning the new feasibility study and the draft terms of reference (ToRs) athttps://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/british-indian-ocean-territory-feasibility-study 

 Members congratulated the FCO on the thorough, far-reaching and objective nature of the draft ToRs. They were pleased to note the emphasis placed on possible resettlement in Diego Garcia and assumed that this indicated prior consultation with the US. They felt that  having different options  for resettlement was a sensible approach. While recognising that this would entail a more elaborate study they agreed that there ought to be some simplification of procedures and a shortening of the timescale in order to meet the deadline imposed by the  May 2015 general election and to reduce costs. Given that the Foreign Secretary had announced a stock taking of  policy towards resettlement on 20 December 2012 they had expected the study to be completed by the summer recess (July 2014), so that decisions could be taken well before the election. On the timetable proposed it looked as if it might not conclude until shortly before the election, since the ToRs would not be finalised until next year, followed by a period for selecting consultants. This would hardly allow enough time for  the BIOT Policy Review into which  the conclusions of the feasibility study will feed. It is understood that this review will consider all aspects of BIOT policy, including re-negotiation of the UK/US Agreement, sovereignty and future management of the MPA and the Chagos Islands.

The Group urged that there be no more procrastination and that the proposed feasibility study timetable be shortened to meet the overriding deadline of a general election.  A future government might well decide to carry out its own policy review. The Group was also concerned that no progress appeared to have been made in identifying the wide ranging experts who would carry out the study, and their availability. It was not clear whether there would be a tendering process for consultants or if the FCO itself would invite experts to participate, and how their suitability for this complex task would be determined. 

Members took note of the PQs and Questions answered since the last meeting on 9 October, the interventions made by Lords Luce and Ramsbotham in the debate on the Commonwealth on 17 October and also Early Day Motion 649 tabled by the Chairman which reads:

"That this House congratulates the Chagos Refugees Group on their conference in Mauritius to mark 30 years since their foundation following their displacement from the Chagos Islands; and recognises that this historical wrong can best be corrected by allowing and facilitating their return to the Islands." The Coordinator gave a report on the conference and on his meetings in Mauritius.

The Group was also informed of the Chagos Conservation Trust conference on 18 November which marked its 20th anniversary. Members were pleased to hear about developments in the Outreach programme for Chagossians living in the UK. They noted that Chagossians living in Mauritius and Seychelles were more likely to want to live in the Chagos Islands and that conservation and marine skills education was more appropriate for their needs.

Members were pleased to learn that Dr Mark Spalding of The Nature Conservancy, respected by Chagossians and the Chagos science community, had been appointed the new BIOT Science Adviser. They congratulated the FCO and Dr Spalding on his appointment.

The Group was informed that the Judicial Review of the MPA was set for appeal at the end of March and that the Mauritian case at ITLOS remained active. It was noted that the draft ToRs of the feasibility study referred to the possibility of amending the MPA. Members wondered why the MPA had not already been amended to take account of Chagossian and Mauritian interests, thus obviating the need for litigation. 

The next meeting of the Group will be held on 17 December.This will be the 40th meeting of the Group since it was established in December 2008. Since that meeting the Group has continued to press for a new feasibility study.

David Snoxell

Coordinator, Chagos Islands (BIOT) All-Party Parliamentary Group

Chagos Newsletter November 2013

CHAGOS NEWSLETTER NOVEMBER 2013

 

PARLIAMENT

The Chagos Islands (BIOT) All-Party Parliamentary Group held its 38th meeting on 9 October

 

The Group felt that the PQs concerning the BIOT Policy Review, answered in early September, had been helpful. It was clear that the next stage was a statement by the FCO Minister to Parliament on the results of the consultation on the Review and the proposed feasibility study which was expected this month. The Group understood that it would include draft terms of reference and that thereafter experts would be invited to conduct the study. Members felt that the consultants should be respected experts in their disciplines and of proven objectivity and independence, if the study was to be seen as balanced and transparent. The Group reiterated their wish that Parliament should be able to debate the results of the study before the summer recess in July 2014. This had been stated in the Chairman's letter to the Foreign Secretary of 16 July on the Group's views about the review of policy. It was agreed that the Chairman would respond to the forthcoming statement on behalf of the Group. Members asked the Chairman to remind the Foreign Secretary of his offer for a further meeting following their last meeting with him in December 2011.

 

The Group discussed possible interventions in debates and further PQs in the current session. The debate in the Lords on the Future of the Commonwealth on 17 October would be an opportunity, given the emphasis on human rights in the Commonwealth Charter, signed by The Queen in March, since the continued exile of the Chagossians remained inconsistent with Commonwealth values and the UK's promotion of human rights.

 

Members also discussed the need for HMG to involve the Americans in potential resettlement in view of the  anticipated renewal of the 1966 UK/US Agreement in 2016. This should not wait until after the feasibility study had reported. It could be addressed in the annual round of UK/US Pol-Mil discussions usually in October. US agreement and funding, especially if resettlement were to be on Diego Garcia, should form part of the renewal of the 1966 Agreement and be discussed in 2014 when the Agreement comes up for re-negotiation.

 

The submission of 1 October by Minority Rights Group International (MRG) to the Ministry of Justice, concerning the UK's failure to report on BIOT in its periodic reports to the UN Human Rights Council, was considered. Members were surprised to learn that the UK had on each occasion declined to report on BIOT on the grounds that it was uninhabited, an argument repeatedly rejected by the UN Human Rights Committee and the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination. They felt that the UK should be honest about its own failings with regard to human rights. They hoped that the Justice Secretary would  ensure that this omission was rectified in the forthcoming Universal Periodic Review Mid-Term report.

 

The Group took note of articles in the Commonwealth Law Bulletin in August (Prerogative legislation as the paradigm of bad law-making: the Chagos Islands by Ronan Cormacain) and in Ocean Challenge Summer 2013 (Sharks on the lawn at Diego Garcia - but is rising sea-level to blame? by Richard Dunne).  They also took note of the ILPA briefing, so far as it concerned the Chagos Islanders, for the debate on 'Requirements for those who apply for UK citizenship or nationality' in the Lords on 8 Oct, and also noted the current state of appeals to the First Tier Information Tribunal concerning the application of FOI to BIOT.

 

Members were pleased to learn that an international conference on the Chagos Islands had been organised by the Chagos Refugees Group in Mauritius from 29 to  31 October to mark their 30th anniversary and that the Coordinator would be speaking at it. They hoped that the UK, Mauritius and the US would participate.

 

The next meeting of the Group will be held on 20 November.

 

David Snoxell

Coordinator of the Chagos Islands (BIOT) APPG

 

The recess and conference period is now behind us which meant that there were several Chagos related Parliamentary Questions which were tabled since the two houses returned.  The Liberal Democrat’s Lord Avebury got us under way on the 22^nd October when he asked:

“whether they have any plans to discuss with the government of the United States the creation of a settlement for Chagossians on Diego Garcia in the context of the
renewal of the 1966 United Kingdom–United States Agreement.”

Baroness Warsi (Conservative)

“Senior officials have discussed with US officials our intention to commission a new feasibility study into the resettlement of British Indian Ocean Territory. Though the Government is supportive of the long-term use of Diego Garcia as a shared strategic asset for the UK and US, we do not anticipate formal discussions with the US about the future use of Diego Garcia until this study has been concluded.”

Lord Avebury (Liberal Democrat)



“To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether they intend to include a report on British Indian Ocean Territory in their report to the Universal Periodic Review of the United Nations Human Rights Council.”



Baroness Warsi (Conservative)



“There were no specific recommendations regarding the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) in the UK’s Universal Periodic Review report in May 2012. The mid-term review document is currently being drafted, and we cannot comment further on its content at this time.”

 

23rd October- Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North, Labour)



“To ask the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs when he will open discussions with the US Government on the re-negotiation of the 1966 UK-US agreement on British Indian Ocean Territory, and whether such discussions will include resettlement of Chagossians in their homeland.”



Mark Simmonds (Boston and Skegness, Conservative)



“No date has been set for discussions between the UK and the US on the extension of the 1966 agreement on the British Indian Ocean Territory. Though the Government is supportive of the long-term use of Diego Garcia as a shared strategic asset for the UK and US, we do not anticipate formal discussions with the US on this issue until the review of our policy on resettlement has been concluded.”

 

24th October-  Henry Smith (Crawley, Conservative)



“To ask the Secretary of State for Justice if he will ensure that the UK's Mid-Term Report (Universal Periodic Review) to the UN Human Rights Council includes British Indian Ocean Territory.”

Shailesh Vara (North West Cambridgeshire, Conservative)



“There were no specific recommendations regarding the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) in the UK's Universal Periodic Review report in May 2012. The mid-term review document is currently being drafted, and we cannot comment further on its content at this time.”

 

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour MP and long-time friend of the Chagossians, has sponsored a Parliamentary Early Day Motion (EDM).  It congratulates the Chagos Refugees Group on their recent conference in Mauritius which marked the 30^th anniversary since the organisation was established (full details will follow in our December newsletter).  It also calls on the House of Commons to recognise the historical injustice committed against the Chagossian community and for it to be corrected by facilitating a return to the islands.

EDM number 649 which is entitled as “Chagos Refugee Association” was tabled on the 29^th October and will remain open for the remainder of this parliamentary session.  It can be found here.  This is the first EDM since 2010 and so it is an excellent opportunity for supporters to ask their MPs to sign and can be utilised as a gateway to engage them further in our on-going campaigns.  Ideally it could even lead to some joining the very productive APPG which will strengthen our position within Parliament further.

LEAVE TO APPEAL AGAINST MPA JUDICIALREVIEW RULING

We are delighted to confirm that last month Lord Justice Jackson granted our legal team leave to appeal against the Marine Protection Authority (MPA) Judicial Review ruling from April.  It was considered that there were “grounds of appeal (which were) properly arguable” and meant that the application for appeal was granted.  At this stage it is still unconfirmed as to when the appeal will be heard, but early indications are that it could take place as early as February 2014.  These things are notorious in terms of their predictability so we will closely monitor developments and confirm the date of the hearing once this is officially announced.

DAVID VINE‏

Another of our long standing prominent supporters, David Vine, has been working alongside Phil Harvey and Wojtek Sokolowski.  Collectively they have put together a revised version of a model which was developed for the Chagos legal litigation to calculate compensation owed to the Chagossians as a result of the expulsion from their homeland.  The full report can be found here but a brief summary as outlined by David is as follows:

·         The aim of the Human Rights Standards Damages Model is to calculate damages Chagossians have suffered as a result of their expulsion from their homeland by the US and UK governments.

·         The Chagossians were forcibly displaced from their homes in the Chagos Archipelago between 1968 and 1973 during construction of the US military base on the Chagossians' largest island, Diego Garcia. They have now remained in exile for more than 40 years.

 

·         Although money cannot measure or fully compensate for the losses Chagossians have experienced, we believe it is important to provide a damages estimate so that Chagossians (and other groups) can seek proper compensation and some measure of justice.

·         Our model offers a framework that allows an objective and transparent way to measure tangible and intangible damages suffered by the Chagossians and other peoples who have been dispossessed or who have experienced other human rights violations.

·         The basis for our model is a 2005 United Nations resolution that reaffirmed the right of victims of gross human rights violations to reparations. Both direct victims and indirect victims, like children and other family members, are entitled to reparations.

·         To calculate lost land and property, our model estimates the value of the Chagossians’ land through comparisons with 1) annual rental payments made by the United States for the military use of the Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands; and 2) Japan’s 2006 agreement to pay the United States $6.09 billion to reclaim land occupied by U.S. military bases on Okinawa and help move U.S. troops to Guam.

·         To calculate lost income, we looked for small, isolated comparison populations living next to a military base like Diego Garcia who were able to enjoy the economic benefits of living next to a base. Our model holds, however, that a population that has suffered its own social and economic human rights violations (e.g., Kwajalein, Guam) is not an appropriate comparison group because properly measuring compensation demands assuming that governing sovereigns uphold the highest human rights standards, rather than assuming additional rights violations. Our model, thus, compares Chagossians’ earnings since their expulsion with the earnings of three comparison populations (France’s Indian Ocean island Réunion; the UK Overseas Territories; and the UK) representing three levels of attainment in securing economic and social rights.

·         To calculate other consequential damages, including injuries to health, educational opportunities, and psychological wellbeing, among others, our model employs a commonly used methodology mandated by the U.S. Fair Labor Standards Act to compensate workers for consequential damages stemming from minimum wage violations. This methodology allows an additional award of “liquidated damages” equal to back pay owed, although this doubling multiplication factor probably understates the true extent of Chagossians’ damages.

·         Accounting for Chagossians’ lost land and property, lost income, and consequential damages, we estimate that total damages fall between $5.4 billion (€4.3 billion) and $13.2 billion (€10.5 billion) (expressed in international $ and purchasing power parity €).

·         For reasons that we explain in the article, we believe that actual damages probably fall towards the higher end of this range.

·         Because the US and UK governments have barred us (and other researchers) from Diego Garcia, our calculation does not include an estimate of what appear to be significant environmental damages caused by the US military base.

·         The size of our damages estimate is a function of 1) the severity of Chagossians’ losses connected to being exiled; 2) the fact that these harms include not only losses suffered individually by each Chagossian, but also losses suffered collectively as an indigenous people dispossessed of their homeland; 3) the fact that both of these categories of loss have continued to accumulate as a result of the Chagossians’ continuing exile; and 4) the length of time the exile has continued.

*Note: This article was published in September 2013, although the publication date is 2012

David has been busy last month because he also wrote a piece on the ever expanding reach of US military bases.  It largely deals with the compliance of Italy who has allowed the expansion within her territories, but does make reference to the existence of a certain base in the Indian Ocean:

While much attention has been focused on President Obama’s “Asia pivot,” the Pentagon is concentrating its forces at bases that represent a series of pivots in places like Djibouti on the horn of Africa and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, Bahrain and Qatar in the Persian Gulf, Bulgaria and Romania in Eastern Europe, Australia, Guam, and Hawai’i in the Pacific, and Honduras in Central America.

RICHARD DUNNE

An updated guide to the Chagos Islands and their physical environment, a version of which was first presented to the BIOT Policy Review Team, has been submitted to us by Richard Dunne.  It makes for fascinating reading and a full version is attached to this edition of the newsletter, but one of the most striking areas highlighted looks at long term sustainability in terms of rainfall and water supplies:

• The Chagos islands (Salomon & Peros Banhos atolls in particular) have the highest annual rainfall totals of all Indian Ocean atolls (Stoddart 1971b), approximately 3,750 and 4,000 mm/year (Posford Haskoning Ltd 2002).

 

• Completely dry months do not occur on Salomon & Peros Banhos atolls (Stoddart 1971b).

 

• Freshwater on all the islands is contained in lenses trapped in the coral basement and is suitable for domestic consumption.

 

• The water supply ‘population capacity’ of the two principal islands in the northern atolls would be approximately 3,000 for Ile du Coin and 1,500 for Ile Boddam for an average water demand of 100 litres per person per day (Posford Haskoning Ltd 2002).

 

• Diego Garcia obtains all its freshwater supplies from the island lenses, sufficient to support a population of several thousand military and civilian contractors.

 

The association eagerly awaits feedback from the BIOT Policy Review Team regarding these fascinating facts which severely undermine previous arguments that any resettlement would be unsustainable.

 

30^th ANNIVERSARY OF THE CHAGOS REFUGEES GROUP

As announced in our September edition, the Chagos Refugees Group (CRG) marked the 30^th anniversary since the organisation was established.  A series of events has been held, the most prominent of which was the International Conference, full news of which will be included in our December edition.

The 10^th October was the day the group officially marked 30 years of existence.  The Association agrees that such a milestone should be celebrated, but equally it is a note of caution to all of our supporters that this injustice has been allowed to continue for far too long. 

 

It is in everyone’s interests that there will be no 40^th anniversary and that the organisation will instead be functioning as an autonomous body which oversees the interests of Chagossians, and that this role is administered from the Chagos Islands.

 

 

OLIVIER BANCOULT IN ARGENTINA

During a very busy month for the CRG leader, Olivier Bancoult was also invited to Buenos Aires to participate in a press conference with the Argentine Foreign Minister Hector Timerman.  An Argentine press release announced:

“Once again the UK displays its disdain for international law and double standards regarding the right to self determination of peoples, since it ignores the right of Chagossians to return to their lands and on the other hand pretends to force the right to self determination for the Malvinas question, even when the United Nations do not consider such option applicable”

Olivier went on to denounce the double standards in terms of the treatment of the Chagossians when compared to the Falkland Islanders, a contradiction that:

"ensures that gives all power to the inhabitants of the Falklands, while with we will do everything the opposite."

A short clip of the press conference can be found here.

FORGOTTEN IN THE INDIAN OCEAN

Tessa Grauman recently aired a two part radio magazine highlighting our struggle for justice.  The first segment deals with the background story of the cause while the second addresses the political and diplomatic issues behind the deportation forty years ago.  Olivier Bancoult, Jeremy Corbyn, Richard Gifford and Richard Dunne were amongst a number of individuals who contributed to the production.

MINORITY RIGHTS GROUP INTERNATIONAL

We were recently contacted by the international human rights organisation Minority Rights Group (MRG) regarding a submission they made in September to the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland’s Mid-Term report to the Universal Periodic Review (UPR).  The full submission can be found here but in summary the MRG argued that the UK has an obligation to ensure that human rights treaties to which it is party to, is applied to any territories under its jurisdiction.

OLIVIER GOUJON

One of our supporters from Twitter has put together a collection of images of Chagossians on the micro-blogging social network Tumblr entitled “The Dogs of Chagos”.  The post also includes contributions from interviews conducted with a number of islanders based in Mauritius.

Meri-Elysee Charlemagne is a Chagossian. Born on the island of Peros Banhos in 1972. She was deported with her grandmother Emilienne and the rest of her people in 1973 by the United States of America and the UK.

The story began 300 years ago, when escaped or freed slaves settled on dream archipelago, the Chagos islands in the middle of the Indian Ocean. Abundant fishing, copra work for companies Seychelles, life goes on its light rail and happy until the mid-twentieth century. The Chagos are then dependencies of Mauritius, a British colony. Decolonizing the area of the Indian Ocean, the English refuse to include the Chagos islands in the independence of Mauritius. The archipelago is sold to the Americans (ED: This was not actually the case), who want to set the largest military base of the world, on Diego Garcia, the main island of the archipelago. Small problem: the Chagossians. They became 8000 and are settled on the islands of Diego, Peros  Banhos and Salomon. The deportation is organized: “At first, says Emilienne, they told us we were going on vacation, or make medical visits in Mauritius, but those who left never returned, so we are suspicious and we don ’ longer wanted to leave, so the Yanks have forced us to get on the boat and we left everything, our houses, our furniture, our animals. We travelled in the hold, as slaves, like dogs. ” The Nordvaer left Diego on June 2, 1973 with 2000 Chagossians on board. The 2000 that the British and American governments had failed to deceive. Direction: the slums of Mauritius.

 

NOTE FROM THE EDITOR

The newsletter will return to its regular cycle next month and will include two months of news, covering stories from November and December. 

Just a reminder again that Jeremy Corbyn’s EDM number 649 can be found here. 

Thank you as always for your continued interest and support,

Clency Lebrasse (Update compiler)

The Chagos Islands: Physical Environment - Key Facts‏

Prepared by Richard Dunne October 2013

The Chagos Islands

Physical Environment – Key Facts

Over the last 20 years the Chagos has been a relatively stable physical environment,

and these low-lying coral islands should continue to be able to support human

habitation, as they have done for much of the last 200 years (Dunne et al. 2012).

Island Morphology

• The Chagos islands are all of low elevation with only 18% of their land above 2 m and 7% above 3 m (Woodroffe 2008). They were formed between 6,000 and 4,000 years beforepresent (BP) (Perry et al. 2011) when sea level had risen to about its present level.
• •Reef islands are accumulations of sand and gravel (derived from the surrounding reef) that are transported and deposited by waves and wave-induced currents on reef surfaces. The location of islands therefore, results from the unique combination of hydrodynamic forces and the sediment available for transport and deposition. The maximum elevation of reef islands is controlled by wave runup against the shoreline, which controls the maximum level of sediment deposition. Wave overtopping (and associated inundation) therefore, is a natural mechanism that allows a fresh layer of sediment to be added to island surfaces, thus increasing land levels (Kench et al. 2006).
• Increasing land elevation through overwash processes, combined with differential erosion and accretion of island shorelines, controls the dynamic physical adjustment of islands on reef surfaces (Webb & Kench 2010) and provides mechanisms for islands to adjust to changing environmental boundary conditions.•
• A comparison of the shape of Diego Garcia atoll between 1824 and 1971 suggests that any changes to the size of the island over this timespan have been minor (Stoddart 1971a).
• A comparison of island morphology in Salomon and Egmont Atolls between 1905 and the present day suggests that some islands may have decreased in size to a small extent (Ile Boddam -4.7%, Ile de la Passe -2.8%) but that others have increased (Ile Takamata +6.3%; Egmont Atoll +36.5%). This is over a time period when GMSL rose by about 20 cm (Dunne unpublished).
• A survey of 27 Pacific Atoll islands over a 20 to 61 year period during which sea-level has risen at 2mm year-1 has demonstrated that 43% of the islands remained stable, 43% increased in size, and 14% decreased (Webb & Kench 2010). The study showed that these islands are robust and can increase in area despite sea-level rise, that erosion may be balanced by deposition on other parts of the shore, and that the islands are dynamic landforms that adjust in response to physical conditions. Furthermore the study results were applicable to islands in other reef settings and contradicted widespread perceptions that all reef islands are eroding in response to recent sea-level rise.

Seismic Activity

• •The Chagos lie in an area of the Indo–Australian tectonic plate where there is intense intraplate deformation, with high seismic activity.
• Large earthquakes occurred in the area in 1912 (M6.8) and 1983 (M7.6) with a “swarm” of moderate sized earthquakes in 1965–1968 (Wiens 1986).
• Since 1973, there have been 314 earthquakes greater than M4.5 within a 500 km (270 nm) radius of Diego Garcia (USGS/NEIC PDE, 2011. http: //earthquake.usgs.gov/ earthquakes/ eqarchives/epic/.Catalogue searched 13 Jun 2011).

Vertical land movement

• •Although in an area of seismic activity, there is no record of island subsidence, indeed onDiego Garcia minor crustal uplift of 0.63} 0.28 SE mm year−1 has occurred between 1996 and 2009 (Dunne et al. 2012).
• On Diego Garcia there is tentative evidence of ‘emergence’ of the atoll (Woodroffe 2005) but this is actually due to a slight lowering of the sea level since the mid-Holocene (3,000 years ago).
• There is no known evidence of subsidence in the archipelago in the past 100 years (Dunne et al. 2012).
• Tectonic plate movements and seismic activity can cause changes to island elevation and there is some inference of uplift having occurred on several islands (part of Coin du Mire in Peros Banhos atoll, and North Brother and Resurgent in the Three Brothers group).

Sea Level

• •Sea level rise (SLR) is an inescapable consequence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, whether these are due to anthropogenic causes or otherwise.
• Global mean sea level (GMSL) is controlled primarily by volume changes of the world’s oceans and is currently rising at a rate of 3.2 } 0.4 mm year-1 (Colorado University Sea Level Research Group - http://sealevel.colorado.edu/) although more recent analysis suggests that part of this rise might be due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and that the true rate of rise is 2.7 mm year-1 (Hamlington et al. 2013).
• Over the period, 1901-2010, GMSL has risen by between 17 and 21 cm as measured by tide gauges (IPCC 2013b; IPCC 2013a).
• There is no evidence that the rate of GMSL rise accelerated during the 20th Century (Gregory et al. 2013).
• Due to continued warming of the world’s oceans induced by increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, global mean sea level is projected to rise by between 26–97 cm by the end of the 21st century, depending on which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) will be realized in the future. There are large uncertainties in the ranges projected by the models. Under RCP 4.5 or 6, both of which are considered realistic, GMSL will rise by a further 24 cm by 2050 and 64 cm by 2100 from today’s levels (2013) computed from figures in IPCC (2013b) and IPCC (2013a).
• Regionally, because of changes in wind- and buoyancy-driven ocean currents in response to global warming, local sea-level rise (SLR) could be higher or lower than the global mean, but on past history is likely to be lower in the Chagos region of the Indian Ocean (Han et al. 2010).
• In the Chagos Archipelago no significant SLR can be detected in the instrument record (tide gauge at Diego Garcia 1988-2011, and satellite altimetry 1993-2011) (Dunne et al. 2012).
• There is also no long term change in the incidences of the highest sea level (e.g., extreme spring tides) when island flooding or inundation is most likely to take place (Dunne et al. 2012).

Erosion and Flooding

• There are recent documented reports of sea-water inundation and flooding in the Chagos islands, e.g., on Diego Garcia (Sheppard 2012a; Sheppard 2012b) which have been attributed to rising sea level. Sheppard (2012a) has also characterised this as “accelerating both on Diego Garcia and on northern atolls”
• Inundation is however a regular feature at different locations on these islands and there is no evidence to suggest that this is increasing over time on Diego Garcia (Dunne 2013).
• Erosion is a natural process on all low lying coral islands and is manifest in seasonal removal and deposition of sediments from different shorelines driven by the changing monsoonal winds and currents. These effects are evident in the Chagos over decades to hundreds of years e.g., (Woodroffe 2011).
• Inundation and erosion has regularly been reported by researchers for over 120 years, e.g., on Diego Garcia (Bourne 1886).
• On Diego Garcia, shoreline erosion has been particularly evident since major engineering work began in the 1970s and has been exacerbated by reef bedrock removal, shoreline engineering and vegetation clearance (EG&G Environmental Consultants 1980; Moffatt & Nichol 2008).

Cyclones, Storms, and Wind/Wave environment

• The Chagos lie outside the Indian Ocean cyclone belt and experience relatively low wind speeds (Dunne et al. 2012).
• The last known cyclone to pass over the islands was in 1891.
• There is no evidence of changes in the wind or wave environment in the past 20 years (Dunne et al. 2012).
• Projected changes in the wind/wave climate of the Indian Ocean for the years 2075-2100 compared to 1980-2009 are that significant wave height (Hs) will decrease by about 5% (IPCC 2013b; IPCC 2013a). Significant wave height is the mean of the upper ⅓ of the largest waves.
• There are no projected future changes in either the location of the tropical cyclone belt or the frequency of storms for the Indian Ocean (IPCC 2013b; IPCC 2013a).

Overtopping and flooding

• •The potential for wave overtopping of the island of Ile du Coin (Peros Banhos atoll) and Ile Boddam (Salomon atoll) which led to the conclusion that “both Ile Boddam and Ile du Coin are likely to experience severe overtopping” in the 2002 Phase 2B Feasibility Study (Posford Haskoning Ltd 2002) has since been demonstrated to be flawed (Kench 2012).
• Modelling of the response of low lying coral islands to increases in sea level demonstrates that, subject to sediment supply, beach ridges increase in height and migrate inland and retain their capacity to protect the island from wave overtopping (Cowell & Kench 2001).

Rainfall and Water resources

• The Chagos islands (Salomon & Peros Banhos atolls in particular) have the highest annual rainfall totals of all Indian Ocean atolls (Stoddart 1971b), approximately 3,750 and 4,000 mm year-1 respectively (Posford Haskoning Ltd 2002).
• Completely dry months do not occur on Salomon & Peros Banhos atolls (Stoddart 1971b).
• Freshwater on all the islands is contained in lenses trapped in the coral basement and is suitable for domestic consumption.
• The water supply ‘population capacity’ of the two principal islands in the northern atolls would be approximately 3,000 for Ile du Coin and 1,500 for Ile Boddam for an average water demand of 100 litres per person per day (Posford Haskoning Ltd 2002).
• Diego Garcia obtains all its freshwater supplies from the island lenses, sufficient to support a population of several thousand military and civilian contractors.

Phase 2B Resettlement Study 2002

• •The ‘General conclusions’ found in section 1.11 of the Executive Summary appear to be predicated largely on the Section 6 of the Feasibility Study and as such are considered to be flawed (Kench 2012).
• Reviews of the critical Section 6 of the Study were superficial and demonstrated that those tasked with assessing the robustness of the science by the FCO (Mr Little & Dr Sheppard) were not qualified to do so (Kench 2012) as a consequence they failed to detect scientific errors in the Study which led to the flawed ‘General conclusions’ (above).

References

Bourne, G. C. (1886) On the Island of Diego Garcia of the Chagos Group. Proceedings of the Royal

Geographical Society and Monthly Record of Geography 8(6): 385-393.

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